Putin's Offensive Campaign. Info

[Immortality]

Even if it was a Ukrainian remote vessel/drone Russia will never admit it, just like all the other terrorist/sabotage issues they've had inside Russian borders since they invaded Ukraine and all those "accidents" those oligarchs/business men have had falling out windows, Pootin would rather have us think his security services are incompetent than admit Ukrainians are bringing the war to him in a small way.

 

[Jolls]

BBC posted a video that shows something appear under the bridge at the time of the explosion.

Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63192757

I have read that report and another one claiming that it was a shaped charge. The post blast doesn't appear to support the attack from below though. The size and duration of the fireball supports the theory that it was related to a large home made low explosive charge.

It is possible that the attack was from below, but I personally doubt it. I f there is a small vessel laying in the mud below the bridge I expect it will be mainly intact.

I also read an article where the author claimed that an "expert" had identified it as being a shaped charge and was explaing how it blew out sideways (target was the bridge). A shaped charge used in this manner produces an explosively formed projectile (EFP) and is used to target armoured vehicles from a standoff position. This type of system was used primarily against coalition forces in Iraq. He then went on to introduce ng brissance (the shattering effect of high explosives) and included a low explosive as one of the types of explosives that create brissance. Again 100% incorrect. Brissance is related to an explosion (the shattering effect) whereas low explosives burn at a very fast rate (deflagration) producing a "pushing" effect.

Either the "expert" was a goose or the reporter conflated several technical pieces into one paragraph to sound "informed". I expect it is the reporter. What is the motto? "Never let facts get in the way of a good story".

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

 

[Fu Manchu]

Regardless, that boom was a bloody good boom!

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Here's a report from ISW (the Institute for the Study of War) that I've been looking andwaiting for. It discusses the domestic political blowback from the Kerch Bridge explosion and internal pressure mounting and unprecedented criticism piling on Putin over his repeated failure to address repeated failures. The militiary and security forces aren't the almighty, all-conquering, powerful forces everyone thought they were. The public are waking up to the fact that they've been sold a lemon and are starting to kick tyres with a bit of vigour, and look like they might want to smash some glass and start some fires warm up. Meanwhile, Putin does the only thing he can - lashes out and has his invaders kill more women and children in Ukraine with multi-missile strike as they sleep.

Institute for the Study of War

This campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian domestic responses to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion on October 9 and changes within the Russian chain of command. Ukrainian forces continued to make advances towards Svatove-Kreminna highway

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Immortality]

Russia does have a huge standing army with a LOT of equipment but he can only bring that to bear if he declares full mobilization, the down side is it would leave him exposed on other borders and really, how much can he trust his Chinese partner? Should he go all in then he's also burning through all his reserves that are there for the invasion from NATO he expects but will never come and as we are seeing now that Russia is no match for experienced troops with western weapons and tactics.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Further, for those who hunger for background knowledge, here's some wonderful stuff from that man with perhaps the biggest brain in the world. He goes into great detail about the baseless claims of that ratfücking shïtweasel Vladolf Putin made for ever claiming any portions of Ukraine were ever Russian.

Point in case, his bullshït regarding Crimea in 2014 - which the whole world just let him get away with and therefore led to what we have today.

Crimea and Moscow are both descended from the Mongol Empire. The Crimean Khanate was a direct successor ruled by descendents of Genghis Khan, where Moscow was a vassal town that grew into a state. Sort of like the first born son of a king compared to the bastard he sired to a prostitute. If anything, Crimea could have a historical claim to Moscow, and that's without considering the three day soviet ethnic cleansing and removal of the Tatar population in 1944 to Uzbekistan. Makes my blood boil. Professor Timothy Snyder writes it all, so perfectly laid out and balanced, the centuries laid bare. And Putin shïts on the truth as an excuse to kill innocent people in their homes, just like his predecessors and every other narcissistic psychopath allowed enough power.

Russia's Crimea Disconnect

Never say always

snyder.substack.com

 

[Immortality]

Things got a little toasty....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579545927936720896

One has to wonder what all that heat did to the structure under those railway tracks.

 

[Immortality]

Nato warns Russian sabotage on Western targets 'could trigger Article 5'

The call comes amid suspicions that Moscow planted explosives on underwater gas pipelines.

www.stuff.co.nz

 

[Immortality]

An interesting perspective on Putin.

‘He doesn’t negotiate’: Russia’s foreign enemy No.1 on what makes Vladimir Putin tick

His motivations are totally different than what others could imagine – he doesn’t play by the usual set of rules, former insider Bill Browder explains.

www.stuff.co.nz

 

[UTE042_NZ]

That rings very true to me. Psychopath, as I have said, not sociopath like the talking heads call him.

On the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion, apparently it was a truck bomb intended to spoil Putin's birthday but the driver overslept. Ukrainian intelligence then spread misinformation in order to confuse the Russian authorities, and that worked too. Hah! Shame the rail line was only damaged and not destroyed, as that is now Russia's only rail link to its forces trapped in Crimea and the rest of southeast Ukraine.
Putin's petulant lashing out in response with 83 expensive (US $6.5M) cruise missiles against civilian targets and infrastucture garnered the opposite result from what he probably desired. Germany immediately promised expedited delivery of better ground-to-air defense weapons "within days".

RUSSIAN MISSILES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT

Kalibr cruise missile Beyond big BOOM! noises and fires and all, Russia’s missiles that have been launched against Ukraine since Monday are not having the impact the Yard Punk was hoping for. The best the Russian armed forces are capable of is bursts of rage and remaining open to committing any...

open.substack.com